The Bush versus Kerry Presidential Race

Ok. I was wrong when I told a co-worker three months ago that Dean had the Democrat presidential nomination in the bag. The Iowa caucus was a classic "Dewey beats Truman" event, except the reporters found their error before they went to print. Now I am assuming that John Kerry will win the nomination. Neither Mark from Colorado nor Mark Steyn think that the Democrats have improved their fortunes by sacking Dean for Kerry. Bush should win reelection easily if he wages a vigorous campaign. Kerry has the most consistently leftish voting record of the Presidential Candidates (excluding Kucinich, perhaps, but Kucinich only recently became pro-choice on abortion. Dean, Clark and Sharpton don't have a paper trail. Ever wonder why our recent presidents have been governors?)

Being a US Senator from Massachusetts since 1985, serving with Ted Kennedy, Kerry has had little pressure to cast his votes with moderation and, as David Brooks hints, lots of pressure to vote leftish. Once Kerry began trailing in the polls against Howard Dean, he began to contradict his earlier self. Thus, Rich Lowry writes that if Kerry wins the nomination he will be the first candidate for president to wage a campaign against himself.

Mark's prediction? Bush wins with 52 percent to Kerry's 46 percent. Bush wins 37 states. Kerry wins 13 states (Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Washington State, Illinois, California, Hawaii) plus the District of Columbia.

Oh, by the way. This is how they finish in New Hampshire: Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman. And Lieberman quits once the results are known.

Give Me a Break

Ethan Wallison reviews John Stossel's new book.

Dean Loses Iowa and His Mind

Click here to listen to Dean's bizarre Iowa speech. Jonah Goldberg thinks Dean is no longer a contender. But, according to at least one analyst, it's too early to count out Howard Dean just yet. Dean's advantage in campaign cash over his opponents should not be overlooked. The reshuffling of the Democrat presidential race might benefit Republicans. Michael Knox Beran is confident of Bush's political abilities after watching his state of the union address. President Bush starts the 2004 presidential race in a historically strong position. But, ABC News makes you read ten paragraphs of biased analysis until they tell you the good news for President Bush.

Stay the Course In Iraq

This column by Reverend Ken Joseph Jr. depicts an optimistic Iraqi community and argues that for democracy to be successful in Iraq the coalition should not transfer power too soon. Check out Reverend Joseph's web site

Bush's Immigration Plan

Conservatives should take a look at Bush's immigration plan and compare it to the status quo rather than utopia. Utopia would be a world in which the border patrol were larger in force than the United States military and even more competent. Utopia would also give us a Mexico that is as economically dynamic as South Korea. But, since we live in the real world some conservatives have decieded to support Bush's immigration plan. Having millions of immigrants illegally in your country without any documentation is a security problem. Offering these people a chance to tell the authorities who they are without risking deportation (as long as they aren't connected to a terrorist group) might help homeland security. And Bush's plan doesn't do what previous immigration plan's did: put the lawbrakers (the immigrants who came here illegally) at the front of the line to become citizens. Instead it allows them to work in the United States while not being a citizen. Conservatives must realize that Mexico's economy will improve very slowly and that further increases in the border patrol (on top of the fairly dramatic increases during the 1990s) aren't likely to stop the flow of illegal immigration. While trade with Mexico during the 1990s might have influenced Mexico to open up its electoral system to more than one political party, it hasn't yet dramatically improved its economic performance. Never mind why. That's that fact right now. Which means Mexicans will seek a better life in the United States. Why not give these Mexicans a chance to pursue their dreams legally?