The Bush versus Kerry Presidential Race

Ok. I was wrong when I told a co-worker three months ago that Dean had the Democrat presidential nomination in the bag. The Iowa caucus was a classic "Dewey beats Truman" event, except the reporters found their error before they went to print. Now I am assuming that John Kerry will win the nomination. Neither Mark from Colorado nor Mark Steyn think that the Democrats have improved their fortunes by sacking Dean for Kerry. Bush should win reelection easily if he wages a vigorous campaign. Kerry has the most consistently leftish voting record of the Presidential Candidates (excluding Kucinich, perhaps, but Kucinich only recently became pro-choice on abortion. Dean, Clark and Sharpton don't have a paper trail. Ever wonder why our recent presidents have been governors?)

Being a US Senator from Massachusetts since 1985, serving with Ted Kennedy, Kerry has had little pressure to cast his votes with moderation and, as David Brooks hints, lots of pressure to vote leftish. Once Kerry began trailing in the polls against Howard Dean, he began to contradict his earlier self. Thus, Rich Lowry writes that if Kerry wins the nomination he will be the first candidate for president to wage a campaign against himself.

Mark's prediction? Bush wins with 52 percent to Kerry's 46 percent. Bush wins 37 states. Kerry wins 13 states (Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Washington State, Illinois, California, Hawaii) plus the District of Columbia.

Oh, by the way. This is how they finish in New Hampshire: Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman. And Lieberman quits once the results are known.