Lucky W.

Fred Barnes writes that President Bush has caught some big breaks in his campaign for reelection.

Better to be lucky than good. That's an old baseball saying that applies as well to President Bush's reelection campaign. First CBS News--then the entire mainstream media--plays up damaging documents about Bush's National Guard service. But within hours, thanks to bloggers and not to any effort by Bush or his passive White House staff, the documents are exposed as forgeries. Next, the press is poised to promote a book accusing the president of having snorted cocaine at Camp David when his father was president. Again without the intervention of Bush, the White House, or the Bush campaign, the story unravels as the supposed source of the charge categorically repudiates it. And there's an even greater bit of luck for Bush. He has John Kerry as his opponent.

Bush has history on his side: An incumbent president who emerges after Labor Day with a lead almost always wins. And Bush has a real lead, not simply a bounce in opinion polls produced by a successful Republican convention.