Friday, June 25, 2004

Bush Will Win

You heard it here first. And you can quote me on this on November 3rd. Bush will defeat John Kerry in this fall's Presidential election.

Don't get me wrong. It's going to be a rough ride for Bush supporters like me between now and November. And the polls won't consistently show Bush ahead of Kerry until the Presidential debates begin in the final two months of the campaign. Perhaps even in October we will see a handful of polls showing Kerry in the lead, especially polls like those conducted by the Washington Post which are based on samples where nearly one-fourth of those polled are adults who are not registered to vote.

But, here's why Bush will win. John Kerry is pathetically weak on national security issues. He proposed cutting the intelligence budget one year after the 1993 World Trade Center attacks. He voted against going to war against Saddam's Iraq after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 despite the fact that there was UN authorization for that war.

You say that the American people have forgotten about September 11, 2001 and don't support the continuing war on terror? If this is true, why does Bush consistently lead Kerry in polls asking about who will do a better job in "handling the war on terror?"

Economic issues? Most fiscal conservatives are going to vote for Bush despite his drifting off the reservation on issues like government spending and will keep Bush's tax cuts in mind as they pull the lever for him. In October the Bush campaign will make sure everyone knows how many times Kerry voted to raise taxes on people who were never CEO of Enron or Haliburton.

When the original Bush (41) faced Michael Dukakis in 1988, Dukakis ran up a seventeen-point lead. But Bush (41) was never behind in the polls after the Republican convention in New Orleans drew to a close.

The nation is more polarized today than it was in 1988. But the result will be the same. A guy named Bush will win by more than a squeaker and less than a landslide. The final score: Bush 52, Kerry 46.